Strategic Autonomy or Strategic Vacuum? Transatlantic Relations in the Shadow of Ukraine and the U.S. Retreat from Europe
As the war in Ukraine reshapes the European security order and the United States gradually pivots toward the Indo-Pacific, the notion of European strategic autonomy has reemerged with force. This presentation offers a comparative analysis of European and American perspectives on the future of transatlantic relations, particularly in light of a potential U.S. withdrawal from key NATO roles by 2025. Drawing on recent academic and policy research, including French, German, Polish, and American analyses, the talk explores the contradictions, capabilities, and political will behind Europe's quest for autonomy. Three scenarios are outlined—NATO-centered cooperation, strategic fragmentation, and a fully autonomous Europe—examining their feasibility and risks. The presentation ultimately asks: can the European Union become a credible security actor, or will strategic dependency endure?
Autores : Carolina Amaral de Aguiar , Maud Quessard- Consulado Geral da França em São Paulo
- Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI), Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
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